روش Poisson Distribution مدلی است بر مبنای اطلاعات اماری که به شما کمک میکنه به متدی قابل اتکا برای پیش بینی تعداد گل در بازی ها دست پیدا کنید که میتونه در شرطبندی مورد استفاده قرار بگیره ، در این مقاله بهتون اموزش میدم چطور توسط این روش تعداد گل در بازی ها رو پیش بینی کنید به همراه روش میانبر که در زمان کم میتونید یک بازی رو با این روش انالیز کنید
🔹 این روش و نامش ریشه ای فرانسوی داره که توسط ریاضی دان فرانسوی دنیس سیمون ارائه شد و اگر بخوایم ترجمش کنیم به زبان ساده میشه ، میانگین احتمالات در متغیر ها ، خب اصلا به اینکه چه معنی میده کاری نداریم و به دردمون هم نمیخوره ، پس بریم سراغ توضیحش و نحوه استفاده ازش
✅ محاسبه احتمالات گل در مسابقه :
🔻 قبل از اینکه ما بتونیم این روش رو به کار بگیریم باید میانگین تعداد گل های هر یک از تیم ها رو مشخص کنیم ، محاسبه میانگین گل های هر تیم رو میشه با مشخص کردن قدرت هجومی و دفاعی اون تیم ها به دست اورد
🔴 نکته مهم : دقت داشته باشید داده ی شما نه باید خیلی قدیمی باشه که کاربرد نداشته باشه و نه باید خیلی جدید باشه ، مثلا اگر در فصل ۲۰۱۷-۲۰۱۸ باشیم باید داده هامون شامل بازی های فصل قبل باشه ، جلوتر متوجه میشید میتونید از سایت scorepin امار لیگ ها و گل ها رو پیدا کنید
چگونه قدرت هجومی یک تیم رو محاسبه کنیم ؟
✔️ در قدم اول باید میانگین تعداد گل های هر تیم رو در حالت میزبان و مهمان فصل قبل مشخص کنیم
خب این خیلی ساده هست :
➖تعداد گل های زده میزبان در خانه تقسیم در تعداد بازی های خانگی
➖تعداد گل های زده مهمان در خارج از خانه تقسیم بر تعداد بازی های خارج از خانه
🔍 در فصل ۲۰۱۵-۲۰۱۶ لیگ جزیره میزبان ها ۵۶۷ گل در ۳۸۰ بازی زدن و مهمان ها ۴۵۹ گل در ۳۸۰ بازی زدن که میشه میزبان ها میانگین در هر بازی ۱٫۴۹۲ گل به ثمر رسوندن و مهمان ها در هر بازی ۱٫۲۰۷ گل به ثمر رسوندن
میانگین تعداد گل میزبان ها ۱٫۴۹۲
میانگین تعداد گل مهمان ها ۱٫۲۰۷
🔑 نسبت گل تیم ها به گل کل لیگ به ما قدرت تهاجمی رو میده
❓ چگونه قدرت دفاعی تیم ها رو محاسبه کنیم ؟؟
🔸 ما نیاز داریم تا تعداد گل های خورده تیم ها رو هم محاسبه کنیم ، اما اینجا دیگه کار سختی در پیش نداریم نتایج دقیقا بر عکس نتایج بالا یعنی قدرت حمله هست یعنی :
➖میانگین تعداد گل خورده میزبان ها ۱٫۲۰۷
➖ میانگین تعداد گل خورده مهمان ها ۱٫۴۹۲
خب حالا چرا ما کل لیگ رو محاسبه کردیم ؟
🔑چون برای محاسبه قدرت تهاجمی مثلا میزبان ، باید میانگین گل های زده ی تیم میزبان رو تقسیم بر میانگین تعداد گل های زده کل تیم های میزبان در لیگ کنیم
فرض کنید بازی تاتنهام و اورتون در فصل ۲۰۱۶-۲۰۱۷ رو میخوایم محاسبه کنیم
قبلا گفتیم داده های ما باید از فصل قبل گرفته بشه یعنی ۲۰۱۵ به ۲۰۱۶
پیش بینی تعداد گل های تاتنهام در این بازی
🔍 تانهام در فصل ۲۰۱۵-۲۰۱۶ در مجموع ۱۹ بازی در خونه انجام داد و ۳۹ گل زد پس ۳۹ تقسیم بر ۱۹ میشه ۱٫۸۴۲ برابر با میانگین گل زده تاتنهام در خانه
حالا برای اینکه قدرت تهاجمی تاتنهام رو در حالت میزبان حساب کنیم
۱٫۸۴۲ رو تقسیم بر ۱٫۴۹۲ میکنیم ( تعداد گل تیم های میزبان در کل لیگ ) که نتیجه میشه ۱٫۲۳
این از قدرت هجومی تیم تاتنهام
🔍 حالا باید قدرت دفاعی تیم مهمان یعنی اورتون رو محاسبه کنیم
اورتون در ۱۹ بازی خارج از خونه خودش ۲۵ گل دریافت کرد که میشه میانگین ۱٫۳۱۵ گل در هر بازی خارج از خونش
برای محاسبه قدرت دفاعی اورتون ۱٫۳۱۵ تقسیم بر ۱٫۴۹۲ ( تعداد گل های خورده تیم های مهمان در کل لیگ ) که میشه ۰٫۸۸۱
قدم نهایی در فرمول زیر هست که به ما میگه تاتنهام چند گل در این بازی میزنه
قدرت حمله تاتنهام * قدرت دفاع اورتون * میانگین گل های زده میزبان ها در کل لیگ
۱٫۲۳۵ * ۰٫۸۸۱ * ۱٫۴۹۲ = ۱٫۶۲۳
پیش بینی گل های اورتون
قدرت حمله اورتون :
تعداد گل هایی اورتون در خارج از خانه تقسیم بر تعداد گل های کل تیم ها در خارج از خانه
( ۲۴/۱۹ ) / ( ۴۵۹ / ۳۸۰ ) = ۱٫۰۴۶
قدرت دفاع تاتنهام :
تعداد گل های خورده تاتنهام در خانه تقسیم بر تعداد کل گل های دریافت شده توسط میزبان ها
تاتنهام ۱۵ گل در ۱۹ بازی خانگی خودش دریافت کرد پس :
( ۱۵/۱۹ ) / ( ۴۵۹ / ۳۸۲ ) = ۰٫۶۵۳
حالا تعداد گل های اورتون رو باید مثل تاتنهام حساب کنیم
قدرت حمله اورتون * قدرت دفاع تاتنهام * میانگین کل گل های زده مهمان ها در لیگ
۱٫۰۴۶ * ۰٫۶۵۳ * ۱٫۲۰۷ = ۰۸۲۴
💎 این روش میتونه برای ما چندین نتیجه در بازی رو پیش بینی کنه ، البته که نمیشه هیچ بازی با نتیجه ۱٫۶۲۳ به ۰٫۸۲۴ به پایان برسه ، این اعداد در یک فرمول پیچیده قرار میگیرن و به ما احتمالات رو میدن ، که مثلا احتمال گل نزدن تاتنهام در این بازی چقدر هست ؟؟ احتمال ۱ گل زدنش چقدر هست و …..
خب خوشبختانه شما نیاز نیست هر عدد رو در فرمول قرار بدین تا احتمالات رو به دست بیارین کافیه به این سایت مراجعه کنید
🔑در صفحه بار شده ۲ تا کادر میبینید در کادر بالایی تعداد گل مورد نظرتون برای تیم مورد نظرتون رو وارد میکنید و در کادر پایین عددی که قبلا به دست اوردیم ، یعنی تعداد گل های تاتنهام در بازی ۱٫۶۲۳
🔍 فرمول به ما گفت تاتنهام در این بازی ۱٫۶۲۳ گل میزنه ، ما در کادر بالا ۰ رو وارد میکنیم در کادر پایین ۱٫۶۲۳ و گزینه calculate رو میزنیم ، عددی که در مرحله بعدی میبینیم احتمال ۰ گل زدن تاتنهام در این بازی هست معادل ۰٫۱۹۷۳ که میشه همون ۱۹٫۷۳%
یعنی احتمال اینکه تاتنهام در این بازی گلی نزنه هست ۱۹٫۷۳%
فقط کافیه در مراحل بعدی جای ۰ رو با ۱ عوض کنیم ، بعدش درصد احتمال ۱ گل زدن تاتنهام در این بازی محاسبه میشه به همین راحتی
✔️ خب برای اینکه بهتر متوجه بشید من تا ۵ گل رو محاسبه کردم با همین مثالی که زدم
احتمالات گل تاتنهام :
۰ گل ۱۹٫۷۳%
۱ گل ۳۲٫۰۲%
۲ گل ۲۵٫۹۹%
۳ گل ۱۴٫۰۶%
۴ گل ۵٫۰۷%
۵ گل ۱٫۸۵%
احتمالات گل اورتون
۰ گل ۴۳٫۸۶%
۱ گل ۳۶٫۱۴%
۲ گل ۱۴٫۸۹%
۳ گل ۴٫۰۹%
۴ گل ۰٫۸۴%
۵ گل ۰٫۱۴%
🔸مثال بالا به ما نشون میده احتمال گل نزدن تاتنهام ۱۹٫۷۳% هست اما شانس ۱ گل زدنش ۳۲٫۰۲% و ۲ گل زدنش ۲۵٫۹۹% از طرف دیگه احتمال گل نزدن اورتون هست ۴۳٫۸۶% و یک گل زدنش ۳۶٫۱۴% و ۲ گلش هم ۱۴٫۹۸% و گل های بیشتر هم که درصدش بسیار ضعیف هست
🔹 خب این احتمالات به ما میگه محتمل ترین نتیجه از لحاظ ریاضی ۱-۰ برد تاتنهام هست ، حالا میخوایم بدونیم احتمال ۱-۰ شدن بازی چقد هست کافیه درصد ۱ گل زدن تاتنهام ضرب در درصد گل نزدن اورتون کنیم
( ۰٫۳۲ * ۰٫۴۱ ) = ۰٫۱۴۰۴
خب ۱۴٫۰٫۴% احتمالش هست که بازی با نتیجه دقیق ۱-۰ به تفع تاتنهام تموم بشه
یه همین شکل میتونید بقیه نتایج احتمالی رو هم محاسبه کنید
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